Month: October 2020

It hasn’t been easy grinding to +7.23 units, but no one said it would be. Let’s dive into the Week 8 board.

I’ll admit I’m a bit of a homer with these Detroit Lions, as I did lock in the OVER on their wins this season. After a rocky start, Stafford has seemingly righted the ship (1-2 followed by 2-1 to get us to 3-3 on the season), and this is a team that, for the first time really in a decade, is FIGHTING for wins. 

Just last week, as Todd Gurley mistakenly took a garbage time TD in for the score rather than going down after getting the first down  to win the game, what did Matt Stafford do? Marched down the field in 60 seconds with no timeouts to score the game winning TD. That is GRIT, baby!

Enter the Colts. The Colts on paper boast an impressive resume: they’re 4-2, one game back of the division lead, with a defense ranked 4th in DVOA (defensive efficiency), 4th in opponent points per game, and 2nd in opponent yards per play. Not bad, especially when comparing it to this Lions team: 18th in DVOA, 20th in opponent points per game, and 20th in opponent yards per play. 

So what gives? Why is the line so small, at +3? Naturally, that small line showcases Vegas’s belief in this Lions team, and is a strength indicator for the Detroit Lions.

The first red flag for the Colts is their strength of schedule. Yes, their defense has been great. No, their offense has not been, but according to TeamRankings.com Power Ratings, this Colts defense is 32 of 32 in strength of schedule. Such a poor SOS means we must deflate the elite defensive rankings, and further downgrade their subpar offense. 

Where does that leave us? I’m taking a Lions team with the 13th rated SOS and looking at yards per play and points per play both offensively and defensively on the season, and then juxtaposing that against the same stats from their last 3 games (reminder: games in which the Lions played good football):

• Very similar stats on the season offensively; downgrade the Colts due to SOS.
• Defensive advantage for the Colts; downgrade the Colts due to SOS, and very similar.

Last 3 games defensively, we see a VERY similar opponent yards/play as well as opponent points/play:

Offensively, we actually see the Lions outperforming the Colts: 

Don’t sleep on the Colts lack-of-production in the red zone (50% vs. 76.92% TD rate) either. 

Lions +3, lock and load.

As the great Patrick Henry said, “GIVE ME POINTS OR GIVE ME DEATH”, and points are for sure what I need this week. The bad news first: the Raiders are 6-0 towards the OVER this year, and Vegas of course is aware of that; a number that glaring generally should regress. Vegas has taken a step to curb that trend: the total of this week opened at 55.5 the highest total of the week, but has since moved SIX points lower to 49.5. The good news? The Raiders are loaded on offense and can’t stop anyone on defense, so naturally their game script is that of a shootout, and with that in mind, the six points of movement is enough for me to back the over once again.

There’s more good news when it comes to the over here, statistically, and that stems from the data surrounding these two defensive units. In short: they both blow. More specifically, the Raiders rank 31st in DVOA (defensive efficiency), 31st in opponent points per game, and 30th in opponent yards per play. The Browns are right there with them: 24th in DVOA, 29th in opponent points per play, and (a slightly better) 16th in opponent yards per play. Those numbers across the board scream POINTS, POINTS, POINTS.

Offensively, we have good things across the board. The Raiders: 9th in offensive efficiency, 11th in points per game, 9th in yards per play. The Browns: 15th in offensive efficiency, 10th in points per game, 15th in yards per play (still a solid 5.8 YPP). 

Is OBJ out? Yes. Is that what’s driving this total down? Perhaps. Perhaps it’s the sharp money saying that the Raiders simply cannot keep up this over streak. Nonetheless, 6 points of movement (which has happened ZERO times) since 2017) is too much for me not to act on.

Raiders/Browns, OVER 49.5, straight to the bank.

As always, thanks for reading. Good luck this week. For all my last minute adds, follow me on Twitter here – I’m sure we’ll have a few more plays before kickoff.

Instead of rediscovering old ticket stubs crumbled up in a drawer months later, keep the collection together in this wall storage box that turns memories into an intricate collage.

This collection of rebranded and reconstructed jerseys showcases soccer teams from around the globe. Whether the final product is a mashup between two authentic kits or an original design, the periodic new drops every few weeks keep fútbol addicts on their toes. 

Golf automatically gets dubbed as boring unless you’re at Topgolf and boozed up to the max. To spice up a day on the green, add this “club” that fits in any bag. The faux driver doubles as an insulated drink dispenser that holds 48 ounces of any beverage, hot or cold. 

A meet and greet with sport’s most iconic figures might not be in the cards, but a personalized video shout out is just a click away. You can request a plethora of stars like NFL legend Doug Flutie or soccer megastar Darren Bent send video messages to a loved one that legit make it feel like the recipient is their friend. 

Whether you etch a personal jersey number or a tribute to “24” into this leather AirPods case, the crisp detail on this little memento is small but mighty. Engrave a name on the top of the case to ward off anyone who wants it for themselves.

For the baseball-loving, wine-o in your life, this specially crafted baseball player holds their favorite bottle.

Nowadays, something being vintage automatically gives it some added flair, and this vintage sports art is no different. Tickets from the biggest moments in sports are blown up into colorful art pieces that add life to any dull space.

Hear us out. We know it might be a little off-putting to most to have a giant replica of Michael Jordan in your room, but a sports fan needs it for their altar. The reusable, high-graded vinyl sticker is so HD you can even see Jordan’s sweat.

Ice cubes are so last year. Instead of diluting your cocktails with ice, these hockey puck chillers keep your drink extra cold without sacrificing any of the flavors. 

It’s as if it’s scientifically impossible to focus on football without a beer in hand. This map holds 63 bottle caps of America’s favorite game-day drink in a variety of colors to match your home team.

As tailgating season dawns upon us, it’s critical to let the sports world know what side you land on. The set includes one table, two chairs and four cupholders, all of which are easily transportable. 

Repping your team from head to toe is only possible by donning the loudest, most attention calling socks. In no other instance is it acceptable to have someone’s face on your feet.

In an ode to winter sports, these ski bottle openers are cracking open brews to stick in your bottle cap map. You can feel good about your purchase, knowing it’s both handmade and recycled.

This one goes out to all the leading ladies that are presumptuously left out of the “sports lover” conversation. Delicate patchwork and a bit of glitter dawn this denim jacket that’s an embodiment of football meet fashion.

We all know someone who casually slips in where they’re from every opportunity they get. If you put on for your city every day, you deserve this highly detailed 3D stadium art. The laser-etched birchwood includes not only the most celebrated sports arenas but the outlying city that surrounds them. 

Porch pirates aren’t a factor in this gift with the fastest shipping known to man. Access to exclusive interviews, never before seen angles and blacked-out games come together in what’s basically a headfirst dive into the NBA world. Prepare to be ignored while they’re immersed in their basketball bubble. 

Discover the glory days of every MLB team in a book that compiles all the greatest New York Times headlines. Every glory-filled moment is bound together in a book that hypes up a team even if they haven’t won a series. 

Although this little table costs some serious dough, the chances of it being donated to Goodwill after a few uses are slim. Original word artwork gleams through the tempered glass surface surrounded by LED lights that replicate a stadium’s actual lighting. They’ll be obsessed for years.

Playing with our food might be what we’re all missing from our morning routine for an extra jolt of energy. We recommend the basketball mug where you can yell “Kobe” before swishing a piece of cereal through the hoop.

If they’re going to spend every free moment inside a stadium, they might as well get familiar with the architecture. These high-end blueprints give a look inside every detail of their heaven on earth. The designs are all original, crafted on museum-paper for a gift that’ll last throughout the years.

This customized Wilson NCAA basketball is sure to make any sports fan happy. In addition to being great for both indoor and outdoor use, the ball can also be designed to have a customized name on it, making it a great gift.

This custom pillow is the perfect touch for any football coach or player. The pillow can be designed to have the names of the coach/player on there, as well as the names of their teams making it a great gift for any football household.

To follow the basketball mug, this baseball mug will also get the kids excited as the mug is shaped in the form of a baseball, and has a glove built in to “catch” whatever food/drink is in the mug. It could get messy, but it still makes a cool gift for those young baseball fans out there.

If you know somebody who will be playing a lot of games (or watching a lot of games) this holiday season, then the Oversized Gaming Chair is perfect. The chair is super comfy, and will definitely make playing NBA 2K and Madden more enjoyable.

Speaking of 2K, many people are waiting for the next gen to come out before purchasing this latest edition. The hardcopy version (or the money to buy it) would make a great gift to 2K fanatics anxiously awaiting for the next updates.

What better way to reach “Home” than to have a home plate doormat waiting for you after a long day? The mat is a great gift for super baseball fans everywhere.

This gift is self explanatory. The golf whiskey chillers help make your drink better, while giving you that “golf” aesthetic.

With a good percentage of kids being homeschooled this year, a mini basketball hoop would be the perfect addition to the house, and a great option for “recess.”

While the baseball season is now over, it’s never too late to add some baseball glasses to your cupboards. With these glasses, you can still enjoy a nice cold beverage giving you that gameday feel. 

You can never go wrong with a classic. The Air Max sneakers are a staple to any shoe collection, and are a stylish and fresh new piece to add to your wardrobe.

In a sudden changing of the guard in Miami, veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick’s magic has run out. “The Beard” had been playing well for the Dolphins, so the news of Tua Tagovailoa taking over was a bit of a surprise. The vote of confidence from Miami’s coaching staff says a lot about how they feel about Tua’s progress as a pro. With fellow rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert playing lights out this season, it’ll be interesting to see how Tua compares to his draft classmates.

Fantasy Ownership: At just 28% rostered, Tua is widely available in most fantasy leagues. He makes for a solid speculative addition to fantasy rosters if you can afford to clear out a spot on your bench. His next three opponents are the Rams, Cardinals, and a head-to-head matchup with fellow rookie Justin Herbert’s Chargers.

DFS: (DraftKings: $5,600, FanDuel: $6,800) vs. Rams Tua makes his first start against a stout and stingy Los Angeles Rams’ defense. The implied game total and spread aren’t available yet for this contest, but I can assure you that there are much better options at quarterback in DFS this week. I would completely fade Tua until he gets a couple of games under his belt.

Card Market Rating: Buy, however… This is such a polarizing buy, so proceed with caution. Tua’s prices are already sky-high in anticipation of what he COULD be. However, let’s all remember that he is coming off of a major injury and seems to always be banged up. IF he can stay healthy, he is going to be an absolute star. But that is a MAJOR if. He scares me. Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow seem to be the safer two quarterbacks in this class. However, if his injury issues are behind him, he may have the higher upside of the three. That excites me. 

The injuries continue to pile up for some of the league’s best and brightest stars. Odell Beckham Jr. is the latest in what’s becoming a long list of players who have suffered season-ending injuries. In OBJ’s absence, Higgins proved himself more than capable as a fill-in, posting six catches for 110 yards. Higgins boasts adequate size at 6’1 and could soak up some of the red zone looks with both Beckham Jr. and Austin Hooper out for the Browns.

Fantasy Ownership: 0%. That’s it. That’s the number. Higgins is available in every league, so go get him and hope that Baker Mayfield continues playing as he did on Sunday.

DFS: (DraftKings: $4,200 FanDuel: $5,500) vs. Raiders The Browns host the Raiders in Week 8 in what is shaping up to be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate. With an implied game total of 54.5, with the Browns as underdogs, Higgins is squarely in play this weekend. I could see rostering David Carr, Nelson Agholor, then running it back with Rashard Higgins in a game stack. I prefer him on DraftKings slightly more thanks to the $1,300 discount.

Card Market Rating: Sell. It isn’t likely that you are a big owner of Higgins cards unless you are related to him, went to high school with him or you are a Colorado State fan, but a 26-year-old receiver who is getting extended playing time because of injury is not somebody to invest in. 

An undrafted rookie, JaMycal Hasty isn’t a household name…yet. Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Jeff Wilson are all banged up right now, which means the oft-injured Jerrick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty will need to shoulder the load for the Niners backfield. What catches my eye about Hasty, is for a guy who is just 5’8 and barely 200 pounds, he runs with physicality and looks for contact. He hits the hole with a noticeable burst, changes direction effortlessly with well-timed jump cuts, and plays bigger than his measurables would indicate. With San Francisco unable to stay healthy this year, adding Hasty to your squad makes a lot of sense.

Fantasy Ownership: Sticking with our 30% and below theme, Hasty is rostered in just 12% of fantasy leagues right now. He’s not a home run add by any means, but with running back being such a thin position in fantasy, he should be added this week as a dart throw.

DFS: (DraftKings: $5,000, FanDuel: $5,600) @ Seahawks I know the Seahawks were just lit up by the Cardinals, but Hasty is probably best left out of your daily fantasy lineups this week. If you’re playing in a 150 max entry tournament, it may be ok to have a small percentage of Hasty on your teams. Otherwise, he’s probably someone we should fade for now.

Card Market Rating: BUY! BUY! BUY! Hasty was an absolute beast at Baylor and is playing in one of the best offensive systems in the league. He is going to have a real opportunity to earn the #1 spot for years to come, and when you combine that with the extremely low entry point on his rookie cards, this is one of my favorite buys since we began this article. 

Tim Patrick, WR, Denver Broncos

THE LINE: Receiving: 4 TGTS, 3 REC, 44 YDS

THE SCOOP: Broncos’ quarterback Drew Lock spread the ball around in this game, finding ten different receivers on the day. Denver’s tight ends were the most targeted pass catchers on the day, mostly limiting Patrick from repeating his recent success.

UPNXT vs Chargers: Tim Patrick gets a chance at redemption as the Broncos host Los Angeles this week. I view him as a low end WR3/FLEX option in this matchup.

Boston Scott, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

THE LINE: Rushing: 12 CAR, 46 YDS Receiving: 3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD

THE SCOOP: After a mostly quiet game, Scott managed to haul in a highlight reel TD catch to put the Eagles ahead late versus the Giants. If you started Scott, you’re probably a happy camper.

UPNXT vs Cowboys: With starter Miles Sanders expected to miss this game, Scott should find himself starting once again. If you’ve been paying attention, Dallas’ defense is terrible, so Scott makes for a solid RB3/FLEX play.

Keelan Cole, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

THE LINE: Receiving: 2 TGTS, 1 REC, 12 YDS

THE SCOOP: This week was more of a sideline story for Cole. The Jaguars passing game has started to taper off recently, meaning Cole might be better off riding the pine than in your lineup.

UPNXT BYE Week: After the bye, Cole gets a soft matchup versus a very beatable Texans team that just allowed Devante Adams to catch 13 balls for 196 yards, and two tuddies.