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Looking at the NBA Top Shot Market Before the Playoffs, with Jack Settleman

With the NBA Playoffs right around the corner, I think this is a good time to look at the NBA Top Shot market. 

Finally, it appears that the market has stabilized. 

Obviously, it came out guns blazing. But then a market correction did happen. It feels like this is the first time where we are seeing some stability. This doesn’t mean that the prices won’t drop, but it does mean that the days of a 10 percent decrease a day are most likely over. 

Since the market was crashing, what have we seen?

  1. Users have now seen access to withdrawals, which was an early that we addressed in the first couple of Top Shot blogs. 
  1. Dappers also made a lot of new hires, some coming from the NFL. The emphasis seems to be on building out the business with high level marketing members and having a strategic focus. 
  1. Top Shot has done a good job of responding to feedback. Whether it be the requirements on pack drops or removing bots from the release pool. Listening to the community will be massive for Dapper and even though it is early in their career span, they’ve seem to be receptive to feedback. 
  1. A new “King” has come forth in the NBA sphere. “Dingaling” has quickly become one of the more invested consumers of the Top Shot community. In the last few weeks, he has risen to the top ten most valued moment ranks. The “King” came in and purchased these moments “off-market” which factored into his large investment. 

I also have some thoughts/predictions about the market as the playoffs roll through… so let’s take a glance into the crystal ball.

Buy the rumors, sell the news.

Let’s say you think the Bucks will have a great playoffs. And you decide to invest in Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday…

BE PREPARED TO SELL. I do think the market will react to player performances so don’t be afraid to sell just a pinch earlier than you think.

Don’t overthink about who matters.

Don’t get fancy with Joe Harris. Stick to the basics. Buy Durant. Buy Harden. Buy Irving. The odds of a non-superstar becoming the face of a team are remarkably unlikely. Andre Iguodala winning the finals MVP is HIGHLY unlikely and shouldn’t be your model.

Avoid FOMO.

While the playoffs are the most electric time of the year… you don’t need to “FOMO” in. There will undoubtedly be a market dip during the off-season, and the NFL will ramp up. Again, this is no different than the sports card market. Keeping that cash in hand for a few months from now is not a bad idea. Once the season ends, I expect a market dip. 

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